DR. P’s Draft Analysis
Thank you, thank you! No, YOU’RE beautiful! It’s a pleasure to be here!
That’s right folks it is the time of year we all circle on our calendar. And no I’m not talking about when Steve’s mom runs her October blow job train, it is Dr. P’s Draft Analysis!
Once again my proprietary blend of smothering scout coverage along with cutting edge statistical analysis has yielded the ONLY take on the draft. I think calling what we did this year a “Draft” is a bit generous. With one or two notable exceptions it was a lot more like a really bad Craigslist gangbang where nobody who showed up had read the original ad correctly.
As mentioned previously, I have complex statistical analysis backing up these rankings. I basically blended a number of reliable statistical projections and used that to analyze each owners likely performance in each category. This system is called the . Projection. In the interest of maintaining a competitive advantage I won’t be sharing details, but I will be assigning your grades based on your performance in Hitting and Pitching aggregated.
1st Pick: Oakland Moneyballas
Owner – Bret
Well B-box managed to operate the draft module correctly and select Albert Pujols, pretty much guaranteeing he finishes in the top half of things this year. He then follows with two spectacularly shitty picks in Sandoval and Halladay.
Pablo Sandoval… this guy is like a 2004 Lindsay Lohan. Looks super fine, but if you read between the lines the warning signs for a total breakdown are already there. My problem with Sandoval is that he is a goddamn hacker. He swings at everything, which totally worked in the minor leagues and his first tour of duty in the bigs. However I guarantee pitchers make adjustments to him this year, make him start swinging at garbage, and that .330 avg starts looking a lot more like .260. I thought this was a bizarre pick for our regional Billy Beane. What, did the market undervalue swinging at fastballs in the dirt this year B-Box? For more research into the Sandoval phenomenon please see also Francouer, Jeff.
As for Halladay, well, yeah he is really good at baseball. But is he 3rd pick in the first round good? Especially considering he is playing in the bandbox Phillies stadium? And now he has to face Jason Heyward at least 3 or 4 times a year, which absolutely fucks his rate stats. He will get some wins, and some k’s, but that ERA and WHIP will not be elite anymore.
Hmmm…. Fuck a Cliff Lee.. fuck a Nick Markakis… fuck a CC Sabathia.
I really liked his rounds 8-10. Three young stud muffins with unlimited potential. Between Weiters, Butler and Adam Jones one of them becomes a big story breakout this year, GUARANTEED (file this under my list of guarantees, draft analysis curator). I also really liked Matt Garza at 14th.
Overall: Good AVG and OPS mask some other offensive deficiencies. I’m much less optimistic on the pitching, I think they will underperform their projections. CHECK YO PARK FACTORS, SON. Pujols will keep this team competitive, and if some of the young guys break right this could be a contender. If not *fart noise*
Hitting: B-
Pitching: C+ (gives it a B+/A-)
Total: B-
2nd Pick Overall – Dressed to Oppress
Owner: Alex
Strangely, my proprietary statistical projection really likes this team. REALLY likes them. Figuring there was some kind of mistake I checked my calculations, which were correct. And this is the same dude who drafted Joe Nathan. WTF mate?
I say this every year, but man does the A-Rod (the baseball player) not getting love thing piss me off. As a skinny shit head 20 year old, A –Rod batted .358 with a 1.045 OPS and 36 HR’s in his first full major league season. All while playing gold glove level defense at a premium position. That line is ALMOST (ed. Note: not nearly) as good as what Heyward is going to put up this season. Ridiculous!
Anyways. Joe Mauer is going to REGRESS this season kids! Overvalued. And here is what gets lost in all of the Joe Mauer facefuckery, he has limited power! 28 dingers last year was a total aberration, his previous totals from 2004 to 2008: 6, 9, 13, 7, and 9.
GUARANTEE #2: Brian McCann has a better fantasy season then Joe Mauer.
Kinsler is hurt. BJ Upton is the kind of black dude that old racist dudes from Mississippi think all black guys are. He will spend half this season infuriating you with 0/4’s, and then randomly put up games where he hits 3 doubles and steals 4 bases.
Pretty solid value in the pitching staff grabbing Wainright, Verlander and Cain at 6,7 and 10. Verlander at 7 was a freaking robbery. This is the year he gets that CY Young I think. His pitching overall is very consistent, and projects in top 1/3rd of all pitching stats.
OVERALL:. predicts Alex has the 2nd best hitting and 4th best pitching, and #1 overall team. I think that is a bit overstated. This is a team of guys who have performed awesome in the past, but don’t have much potential to breakout further. I see regression risk here (Mauer, Kinsler specifically). Also I have Alex as #1 in RBI’s, a notoriously stupid and unpredictable stat. I’d say he is safely a top 3 squad today, though.
Hitting: B+
Pitching:B-
Total: B
3rd Pick: Heywardja Blowme
Owner: Matt
Artist rendition of my team
This team is the equivalent of getting a blow job from Scarlett Johanssen while petting a really cute black Labrador puppy and having someone feed you pork sandwiches. And you are at the beach, and someone is punching Dane Cook in the face right next to you.
I took Prince higher then his slot because he has the best raw power in baseball. He also has a contract year this year, so you bet that tub of lard will be going to town. Upton at 16 was a bit higher then I hoped to get him, but the former #1 overall pick will finally be settling into approx .975 OPS with speed realm this year.
Now let me tell you about Brian McCann. Sure, he looks like a big cuddly teddy bear with that cute little beard and that chubby tummy awwww come here you! But don’t let that fool you. He was one desire in life: The murder of baseballs. I saw him in 2 spring training games this year. He hit 4 home runs (ED. UPDATE: He hit an opening day homerun too. Shocker!). He had Lasik surgery mid season in 2009. With his corrected vision, and hitting his statistical prime, he is poised to be the best catcher in baseball this year. BOOK IT! Granted he still couldn’t throw out Danny Devito at second, but we don’t have a stat category for that so whatever.
Heyward, Heyward Heyward Heyward. Heyward…. Heyward Heyward Heyward Heyward. Heyward? Heyward .430 AVG, 1.609 OPS, 82 HR, 97 SB. Heyward Heyward Heyward Heyward.
Dan Haren, Greinke and Hanson anchor probably the best cadre of starters in the league. Much like your mom said about you, Josh Beckett was a mistake.
This team is built around upside and progression. Netfali Feliz is the sleeper pitcher of the year. I am perfectly willing to hang on to him until he either gets the closer job or a starting rotation slot. Rajai Davis is giving me premium speed from a very late slot, this will go down as one of my best picks. Heyward (see above) & Upton. Jay Bruce should achieve some of his potential this year also.
I picked up Chipper & Lanceworth Berkman super late as clubhouse guys / projects. Granted they both blew last year, but these guys posted 1.044 and .986 OPS’s in 2008 respectively. If either of them returns to form, it will be a big win.
OVERALL: . projects me to finish in 2nd place, with solid hitting and great pitching. However, that analysis is inherently flawed because it projects Heyward at .260 avg, 10 HR. N-bomb Please. He will have that by May.
Hitting: A+ (even if I just start heyward and leave other slots blank)
Pitching: A (will trade Becket for a double cheeseburger)
Total: A+++++ (the whole is greater then the sum of its parts. This and other violations of natural law are possible when Jason Heyward is on your team fuckin’ up all the quantum mechanics and shit)
4th Pick – Mudhens
Owner: An Enigma known only as “B”. Until I get confirmation from “B”, I am going to assume that stands for Bruce “The Vacuum” Manjuice.
This is another team that the PN.D.E.R. projection really likes. I don’t, however.
With guys like Pedroia and Hanley he has got runs on lockdown. I am a little less bullish on Hanley then others. His .342 avg last year was sustained by a .379 BABIP, something he won’t see repeated this year.
I am going to go ahead and dock him a full letter grade for Troy Tulowitkzi. There is some more dissonance here between me and .R. because it has Troy batting almost .300 with a nearly .900 OPS. WHHAT?? No way he breaks the Mendoza line. FUCK A TROY TULOWITZKI!!! I would rather spend 4 years locked in a box room and being forced to read facebook status updates about what republicans think about the healthcare bill then have that douchenozzle on my team for 1 at bat.
And then there is David Wright. No way he gets back to 2008 levels playing in that cavernous stadium. Not to mention he is part of a lineup that includes an injured Jose Reyes, no Beltran, and a Francouer. I am predicting bust.
Youklis was a good value in 5th round. If we had a stat category for amount of girls turned lesbian after seeing close-ups of him in HD, he would be bumped up to mid 2nd.
I like the late Carlos Lee and Hamilton picks. Either could work out well, and Lee looked svelte in spring training for once.
OVERALL: Tons of runs and speed, no power. I don’t like much of his pitching at all. Don’t like Wright or Tulo, and Hanley should regress. PN.D.E.R. likes him way more then I do. I am going with me this time.
Hitting: B- (PN.D.E.R. gives him an A)
Pitching: D
Total: C-
5th Pick – Hammerin’ Heywards
Owner – Bo
I don’t know about his drafting, but Bo is easily the message board MVP of the preseason. And the “oppressed” meme may be the best in fantasy message board history. But what about his squad?
You can’t begin to evaluate whatever it is Bo did here until you address it in the context of his Strategy. And Bo did have a Strategy going into this draft, we have to give him that. A lot like the US had a Strategy going into Vietnam.
Bochenek eschewed the outdated concept of drafting “Starting Pitchers”. You know, the ones that you only need to spend mid round picks on and produce across 5 categories? Instead he is punting Wins and K’s, locking down Saves, and hoping his cabal of closers can win it in WHIP/ERA for him. I think that is a dicier prospect then he imagines… even though does predict him as the leader in both pitching rate categories.
Offensively it fits the Bo template. A couple of toolsy speedsters at the top in Utley and Crawford, and then finds value for his power in the later rounds by getting high HR, low AVG guys like Dunn, Cruz and Pena.
Generally, I like this strategy. I’m not sure how well it was executed here though. Bo drafted 15 hitters. He can start 10 a day. That does create some security, but it creates even more redundancy and inefficiency.
Bo also drafted JETAH in the 5th round. JETAH is a ONE category guy, AVG. You couldn’t find better value then that in the 5th?
I like the Zimmerman and Martinez picks.
OVERALL: I do like that Bo went into the draft with a plan, and I am awarding him extra points for ambition and execution. Bo is going to get his offensive counting stats for sure. But a couple of blow ups in the bullpen and all of a sudden he is only competitive in 4 categories. Lots of risk.
Hitting: B+
Pitching: Uhhh square? Purple? How do you rate this? (. calls it a B-)
Total: Umm… B-?
6th – Byrnes when I Peavy
Owner – Steve
How exactly can we get Steve’s attention here? Will he start posting if we tell him there are leads for personal injury cases on the message board?
Ryan Braun is awesome but whatever. I really like Cabrera in the 2nd round, especially given his newfound sobriety. If he can get back into his 2006 shape this could be one of the steals of the draft.
Mclouth, Ortiz and Phillips all stink. Very dubious on Sizemore after last year, and those naked pictures. Johan Santana plays for the Mets, thus the pick is wasted.
I do think Josh Johnson is a good value at 9th though.
Overall: Some upside. No closers to speak of. Lacks power. Blah.
Hitting: C-
Pitching: D+
Total: D+
7th Pick – Believing Again
Owner – Glenn
With the steadfast determination of a retard running into a wall, Glenn continues to Believe. Granted this is coming from a guy who traded Joey Votto for a calcified Chipper Jones last year so take that for what it's worth. Let's see what my scouting network and PN.D.E.R. Believe about his squad.
Drafting Lincecum in the 1st round was a… bold decision. I can’t agree with it. There are too many irreplaceable hitters in the first round (guys who can combine Avg OPS, RBI and HR or SB), whereas Lincecum is just a bit incrementally better then everyone else at the pitchers slot. Great pitchers are available in round 4. Great hitters are not.
That's a bold strategy cotton!
Not a big fan of Mark Reynolds, sure he is young but he strikes out entirely too much. I have some personal questions about Holliday, but PN.D.E.R. seems to think he is going to have a huge season. Who knows what to expect from Rollins anymore.
LOVE Granderson in the 6th. I should have jumped on him around there. He is going to have a huge year in that park, and I think he will produce in all 6 categories. Not much else to see on offense.
On the pitching side of things Glenn looks a lot better. I project him as a contender for ERA and WHIP titles, and a very solid Saves showing. Wins I don’t project him well, but that seems to be a crapshoot anyways.
Overall: Sacrificed some hitting (who is going to get the AVG and OPS for him?) to get some of the best pitchers.
Hitting: D
Pitching: A-
Overall: C+
8th Pick – Jason Heyward – Bey
Owner: Lube
The baseball gods frowned upon the heretical team name, and decreed that Lube should have a very disappointing season. R. believes Lube had an awful draft, I think it’s a bit better then that but not great.
The first 4 rounds are generally good. Ryan Howard… sure he will get your counting stats and probably screw your rates. Remember, Howard is a career .226 hitter against Lefties. If I am an opposing managers, I use a LOOGIE against him every inning after the 4th. It doesn’t matter against the Braves though. I swear I remember him hitting a pitch out 470 feet against us last year. I hate this bastard.
Teixeira is a great pick. I would say my biggest mistake this draft (besides doing ohhh about no preparation) was not taking more Yankees. As much as I hate them, that park factor is just off the chain. I could drive in 120 in that park and that lineup. BTW does anyone else think they Yankees might win like 120 games this year? Fuck.
Votto has a lot of upside, safe pick for a young star. Zobrist at 4th was an AWESOME pick, maybe the best of the draft. The Zorilla gets it done, and he is eligible for all 8 defensive positions, and will probably be pitching some relief at some point. Zorilla : Utility Men :: Waffle House : Hashbrowns.
I also liked Mccutchen at 8th, I meant to get him on my team. Tons of speed and if his power continues to develop I don’t think he’s around after the 3rd or 4th next season.
In fact, its safe to say I REALLY like how he drafted offensively.
Pitching… well… did I mention how good his offense was? His most winning pitcher won 12 games last year. Next 10, next 8. Carpenter is always a wildcard with his health. I see what Lube is doing trying to develop guys like Scherzer and Kershaw, but if they don’t make the jump this year it is going to be ugly.
Overall: I think he got a lot of value on the offensive side of the ball. I also think he will have to make some very shrewd moves on the wire as far as pitching goes to stay competitive.
Hitting: B ( gives him a D)
Pitching: D
Total: C
9th Pick – DC Snipers
Owner – Some dude
Here is my draft analysis of this guy’s team: He drafted Matt Kemp in the first round. Matt Kemp voluntarily spends time with Rihanna. Worked out like gangbusters for Chris Brown’s career. That sums up what I think of this squad.
Jason Bay is a good pick in the 7th, and Yovani Goll zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.
Wait, what, where was I? Sorry this team put me to sleep.
OVERALL: Ummm… not good. R. has DC pegged dead last in both pitching AND hitting.
Hitting: D-
Pitching: D-
Overall: D-
